Investing in the Post-Covid world
What do investors need to change in the post-Covid world? My webinar looks at the essential considerations for investors in the post-Covid world, namely:
Reversal of Fortune: Four inflation scenarios investors should consider
Everyone knows that inflation is the elephant in the room that is the global economy. But, actually, there are two inflation elephants in that room, and not everyone can see both. The inflation caused by the government stimulus, money creation and supply shocks of the Covid19 crisis is the elephant visible to all. The older, […]
House price doomsayers: Will housing prices really fall by 20 percent?
Will house prices fall by 20% or more, as many pundits are predicting? Those predictions go against the historical record and against economic reasoning. It is more likely that house prices will suffer single digit percentage falls, and then remain flat (in real terms) for an extended period of a decade or more.
Is it time to fix your mortgage interest rate? It’s all about inflation
Should homeowners and investors fix their mortgage rate, given that the RBA is now set to raise the cash rate substantially over coming months? The answer to that urgent question depends on another question – is inflation transitory, or will it persist?
Why the RBA should have waited and not lifted interest rates
The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has been widely criticized for its conduct of monetary policy over the last two years. Some of that criticism is misplaced. Yes, the Bank’s inflation forecasts were far too low, but the bond market’s forecasts were not much different.
No interest rate rise in 2022 should be the RBA’s New Year’s Resolution
The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Board doesn’t meet in January. That is a pity, because otherwise the Board might announce a New Year resolution. One particular resolution would be very reassuring to hear: A resolution to not raise interest rates until inflation expectations are re-anchored well above their pre-Covid levels. That is, not to […]
Superannuation: Why illiquid assets are in super members’ best interests
Investment by super funds in high quality private assets, such as infrastructure and private equity, creates large benefits for their members, along with some problems. Unfortunately, recent commentary by Richard Holden (Opinion Nov 10 & 23) and others has overstated those problems and largely ignored the very substantial benefits of super fund investment in private assets.
Finance fallacies: Share buy-backs
When a corporation buys back its own shares, then what happens to the share price? A classic finance fallacy is as follows. The share price will rise because the buyback reduces the number of shares among which the firm\’s profits will be divided (true), which increases earnings per share (also true), which in turn will […]
Global minimum corporate tax rate: How the G7 plan could reboot Australia’s moribund tax debate
Should Australia cut its corporate tax rate to 15% and eliminate dividend imputation? That question arises again now that the G7 countries have agreed, in principle, to a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. There would be winners and losers in such a change and the losers have a lot more political influence than […]
Inflation winners and losers
Which asset classes are generally most resilient to rising inflation? Is it shares? property? bonds? infrastructure? If we put aside (for now) the possible unwinding of QE, then I have infrastructure and negatively geared property at the top of my list. There are many considerations in regard to inflation resilience, but here I emphasise two in particular. First, the […]